Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Research Team
Overview: In today’s world we are threatened by failed states that foster terrorism. The Middle East is going through a transformation that will play out for another generation to come. Such change is unlikely to be at a low cost. In fact, the west is already seeing its repercussions. The aims of this paper are twofold. First, to assess the short term economic impact on the French economy using the share price index. Second, to analyse the medium to long term effects on the French and global economies. One of the key findings that emerged from this study is that in the short run markets tend to remain resilient to negative shocks whilst in the long run the cost (GDP@Risk) amounts to $12billion for France and $22 billion for the global economy.
